Bayes' Theorem

How evidence should change belief: the one-line rule behind medical tests, courtrooms, codebreaking, search and machine learning, and the arguments it still provokes

Bayes' Theorem — a positive medical test drawn as 10,000 people, prevalence and predictive value, odds and decibans, a coin's bias learned flip by flip, the Monty Hall problem, the prosecutor's fallacy, combining measurements, a spam filter, Bayesian search for lost wrecks and the Kalman filter